Effects Of The Draw
Some of the complexities...
This is a very much talked about subject among the horse
racing fraternity and I will try and explain some of the
complexities that can affect analyzing the results of the draw.
I have listed some of the problems you will encounter below;
Number of runners
Ground condition (Going)
Racecourse
Track e.g. round or straight course
Uphill downhill
Position of stalls
Left-hand or right-hand course
I will start with the number of runners in a given race. At
first glance this seems a simple enough process, just see how
may have won from a low draw compared to a high stall position.
But as with all things in life, it’s not quite as simple as that
and I will explain why.
Let’s assume there are ten races to be run on a straight
course which is perfectly flat with no draw advantage what so
ever. In each of these races there are five runners and each
stall takes its turn and wins a race. At the end of the day each
stall will have won two races each and have a twenty percent
strike rate.