Friday 1st October 2010

Newmarket 2-30 Adnams Cheveley Park Stakes Group 1

This is a group one race run at Newmarket over six furlongs for 2yo fillies with a scheduled off time of 2-30. Looking at the last ten running's of this race we start to get a picture of what is needed to win an event like this.

The first thing I noticed was that all the previous ten running’s of this race the winner had won one of its last two races, in fact eight of them won on their last outing.

So we are off to a good start and looking at the favourites record it would appear that they win their share along with any other priced horse. Best trainer record in this race would be B J Meehan who has managed to get four out of six in the frame.

Bold Bidder has won two five furlong races but this is six and not raced in anything this hot before.

Hooray has the beating of a number of these in this race today including, Maqaasid, Margot Did, Mortitia and Rimth. Has raced in a number of group races over this distance, two of which she won at York and Kempton.

Khor Sheed finished six lengths ahead of Bold Bidder in a maiden at Haydock in June and then went on to win a listed race next time out at Newmarket over six furlongs. Raced in a group 3 race over seven furlongs at Newmarket in August and was beaten by nearly five lengths.

Maqaasid has the beating of a few of these including the forecast favourite along with Margot Did and Rimth. Won the group 2 Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot in June and although this looks impressive none of the runners of that race have gone on to win a group race.

Margot Did has only won two low class races to date but has been running well in group races since and beaten less than a length on each occasion. Including when beaten by today’s favourite at York over six furlongs. Also has the beating of Maqasid, Mortitia, Rimth and Sweet Cecily.

Mortitia has finished ahead of a number of these including Ragsah, Rimth and Sharnberry but has also been beaten by a few as well. Latest run was a group 3 race over six where she finished four, beaten by two lengths.

Ragsah has won a class 4 race at Kempton on the all weather but did finish in front of Mortitia at Ayr a few weeks ago in a group 3 event.

Rimth has finished in front of a number of these but has also been beaten in the return match. Has only won a maiden but did go close in a listed race, has been beaten more easily in group races.

Sharnberry won easily a maiden on the all weather a Lingfield in August but not raced since then. Mortitia beat Sharnberry by about a length at Goodwood over six furlong back in July.

Sweet City has been running in top class races since winning a maiden at Newmarket over six furlong back in June. Has the beating of Hooray, Mortitia and Ragsah but all her runs have been on much better ground.

Wild Wind is trained in Ireland by A P O’Brien and only raced there where she has won a maiden over seven furlongs. Has not met any of these before and is worth say she was only beaten a head in a group 3 race when beaten by Chrysanthemum.

Extra Information

To help you find that extra nugget of information that will lead you to pin pointing potential winners we have included the table below. This table shows how all horses have performed at the course over the last six months when they held that position in the ratings and includes, runs, wins, strike rate, R.O.I., profit and Betfair profit.

The main area to concentrate on is the R.O.I and Profit columns, there may not always appear to be a profit available, but don’t let that fool you. Think about it, there has to be a winner and it would make sense that it will either be the one with the most profit, or largest R.O.I. or the one with the smallest lost if none are showing any profit.

Horses can appear more than once and in this case it would a good idea to implement some kind of averaging. You may have noticed that some horses have the word ‘None’ next to it, this simply means that it is not rated in either the top or bottom three.

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