Saturday 11th December 2010

Tingle Creek Chase Cheltenham 1-55

Over the last ten years all bar two of the winners had finished in the first three last time out whether it was during the current or previous season. Looking at the winning ages of the horses we find that there is a big advantage for the 5yo to 7yo group with older ones not really getting much successes.

The jolly old favourite and short priced horses appear to be the order of the day with five favourites obliging, no horse won with a starting price greater than 6/1. As for trainers to look out for there only appears to be P F Nicholls out of these running today that has a decent record.

There is one thing that should be taken into consideration when looking at past trends for this race and that is the switch from Sandown to Cheltenham.

Master Minded is a 7yo gelding who everyone has heard of and has amassed close on £900,000 in win and placed prize money and has a 56% strike rate. Won his last race at Ascot in good style when coming home sixteen lengths clear, the going was good to soft on that day which are the conditions where most of his wins have been achieved. Has the beating of a number of these here today as you would expect although was behind Kalahari King in the Queen Mother Chase at Cheltenham last March, which was run on good going.

Twist Magic is a gelding trained by P F Nicholls who has collected over half a million in prize money and enjoys a strike rate of 34%. Has raced at Cheltenham four times but not managed to win, unlike Sandown where he has won three out of six starts. This does not make great reading and the fact is he has not beaten Master Minded in four attempts. On a more positive note has finished in front of Kalahari King, Kinkeel and Mahogany Bay.

Kalahari King is a 9yo and so not in our magical age range but has picked up over a quarter of a million and has the beating of a number of these here today. These included Gauvain, Mahogany Blaze Oiseau De Nuit, Twist Magic and Master Mined. Last win was back in February which was a handicap race and before that Aintree in the grade one John Smith’s Maghull Novice chase.

Petit Robin is a 7yo who has raced over hurdle on his last two races and now comes back the take on the big fences after being given a break since April. Not won here at Cheltenham before and seems better on courses which are more flat but has finished in front of a number of these.

Gauvain is an 8yo who is not one of the biggest earners of prize money here today but has won two of his four races at this course including when beatings both Mahogany Blaze and Oiseau De Nuit here last time out. Is current on a bit of a roll winning his last three races which has taken eighteen months to complete and there could well be more improvement to be seen.

Somersby is a 6yo chaser trained by Miss H C Knight who won two races at this time last year and only three lengths behind Twist Magic last time out at Exeter in the Haldon Gold Cup. But the problem is he has considerably more weight here today and it does not look as if things will be reversed here in this race.

I’m So Lucky is an 8yo who has won nearly two hundred thousand in prize money but his strike rate is not that good and generally better in lower class. Did beat Oiseau De Nuit at Sandown last April but has raced here on six occasions without winning, although did come close back in April when beaten by a neck.

Mahogany Blaze has not won for a long time now and has a poor strike rate, with that said has won about £200,000 in prize money and the last win was at this course. His best success came three years ago in the Stan James Wayward Lad Novice Chase at Kempton and was favourite on that occasion. The best price of news about this one is he did finish in front of Master Minded here last year, although was carrying less weight.

Oiseau De Nuit is an 8yo who has not had success at this level nor has he looked like every winning in this type of company. Did run a better race here in November but was still beaten by sixteen lengths, trainer can do well here but this looks a bit too much.

Kinkeel is the last one in the line up and also the oldest at eleven years of age with a very poor strike rate. In addition to that his form is nowhere near this level and has been beaten by a whole host of these here today.

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